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The GDP growth rate is in the healthy 2-3 percent range. A well-managed economy can remain in the expansion phase for years. The expansion phase nears its end when the economy overheats. When it turns negative, that is what economists call a recession. Businesses wait to hire new workers until they are sure the recession is over. The National Bureau of Economic Research determines business cycle stages using quarterly GDP growth rates. Gross domestic product, which measures economic output, is increasing. It doesn’t happen until toward the end of the contraction phase because it's a lagging indicator. That's the month when the economy transitions from the contraction phase to the expansion phase. (Source: "The National Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions," National Bureau of Economic Research.)The business cycle's four phases can be so severe that they’re also called the boom and bust cycle.They should use contractionary fiscal policy to keep the economy from overheating. That's because they get voted out of office when they raise taxes or cut popular programs.The nation's central bank uses monetary policy.Selected papers were published in the The 24th annual International Seminar on Macroeconomics, organized by Jeffrey Frankel and Francesco Giavazzi, was held in Dublin, Ireland, June 8-9, 2001, hosted by Vincent Hogan, University College, Dublin.The length of a business cycle is the period of time containing a single boom and contraction in sequence.
The common or popular usage boom-and-bust cycle refers to fluctuations in which the expansion is rapid and the contraction severe.
Selected papers were published in the The 25th annual ISo M met in Frankfurt, Germany, June 14-15, 2002, hosted by Otmar Issing and Frank Smets, the European Central Bank.
The program was organized by Jim Stock and Lars Svensson.
The Committee released its new findings on 1 October 2015.
They reflect data publically available as of 15 September 2015.
The recession lasted six quarters; the 2011Q3-peak to 2013Q1-trough cumulative decline in output has been a mild 1.5 percent.